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Electrification is a key part of the “green transition”, which involves reducing carbon emissions and shifting toward sustainable energy sources. Making this transition possible depends on critical raw materials, such as metals and minerals, that are essential for technologies like renewable energy systems and electric vehicles.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that by 2040, electricity must account for nearly half of the world’s energy consumption, and its production must achieve net-zero emissions — meaning that as much greenhouse gas must be removed from the atmosphere as is emitted by electricity generation.

According ������ University’s metallurgical engineering experts — Professor Mari Lundström and Senior Scientist Benjamin Wilson — these are the most important things to understand right now about the material demands of the green transition.

1. The green transition cannot succeed without a significant and rapid expansion of mining – demand could increase up to twentyfold

The demand for critical raw materials is growing enormously. To meet this demand, mining activities worldwide need to increase by as much as 15 to 20 times. If growth were slower, we could afford to discuss the locations of mines, but now minerals must be extracted where they are found.

According to the IEA, the demand for minerals essential to the energy transition is expected to grow significantly by 2040. Copper demand is projected to increase by 50%, while the demand for nickel, cobalt, and rare earth elements is expected to double. The need for graphite could even quadruple, and lithium — crucial for battery production — stands out with an eightfold increase in demand.

It is unclear whether the Earth's natural resources will even be sufficient to meet this demand. An even greater challenge, however, is that production cannot be increased quickly enough. Opening a new mine takes at least a decade from the discovery of a deposit to becoming operational — far too long for the timeline required to curb climate change.

2. Finland is a leader in mineral production and processing in Europe, but the continent as a whole is still inadequately mapped

Much of Europe’s mineral potential remains unexplored due to a lack of detailed geological mapping. While some countries, such as Portugal, are known to host deposits of critical raw materials like lithium, the lack of comprehensive surveys means their size, quality, and economic viability remain uncertain.

Finland stands out as a notable exception. Thanks to decades of government-led exploration, it boasts one of the most thoroughly mapped geologies in the world. This tradition began during the post-World War II industrial reconstruction and continues to be driven by a robust domestic metal industry, making Finland one of Europe’s most mining-friendly countries.

Finland also stands out for its strength in metals and minerals refining. It is the largest producer of nickel and cobalt in Europe and home to the biggest cobalt refinery outside of China. Additionally, Finland is home to the second-largest zinc refinery in Europe.

Currently, Europe can produce only about 10% of the minerals it needs. As demand for critical minerals grows, Europe urgently needs to reduce its dependence on external suppliers such as China and the Democratic Republic of Congo, where mining often fails to meet environmental and labor standards.

3. A diversified approach to materials and technologies helps prevent power struggles

In addition to renewable energy and electrification, a broader range of materials and technologies must be considered. Doing so will help ensure the availability of raw materials and prevent geopolitical tensions.

Many critical mineral deposits are concentrated in a few countries, which can lead to political instability, trade disputes, and resource nationalism. By utilizing alternative materials and technologies, these risks can be reduced.

Thorium technology, currently being developed in Norway, is an example of a solution that expands the range of usable materials. In Finland, innovations could be developed based on the most common raw materials for energy storage, production, and materials technology.

At Aalto University, for example, research is being conducted on catalytic processes that use less platinum — a mineral of which 80% is produced in South Africa. The use of alternatives like zinc could reduce dependence on rare and geopolitically sensitive materials.

4. Recycling cannot replace mining – yet

Battery recycling has grown rapidly in recent years, and is attracting increasing interest from both research and business perspectives. While mining still needs to be expanded, recycling solutions must already be developed now for the future.

However, recycling alone will not be sufficient in the coming years to meet the growing global demand for critical raw materials such as lithium, nickel, graphite, cobalt, and copper. For example, electric vehicle batteries cannot be recycled on a significant scale for at least another ten years — and even then, the recovered materials are estimated to cover only about one fifth of the demand.

According to IEA estimates, recycling could become a genuine alternative to mining by 2040. At that point, new mines might no longer need to be established. This requires timely investment in circular economy research and infrastructure to ensure that as materials begin to circulate more widely, they can be reused efficiently and sustainably.

5. Finland leads the charge in Li-ion battery innovation – BATCircle3.0 boosts recycling and reduces dependence on critical raw materials

The 2024 Bloomberg ranking shows that Finland is among the world leaders in the comprehensive value chain of lithium-ion battery manufacturing, usage, and recycling. Lithium-ion batteries have enabled the development of portable consumer electronics such as laptops, mobile phones, and electric vehicles.

Knowledge of battery material recovery, synthesis, and recycling is crucial for competitiveness in the green transition and global electrification. Additionally, the EU’s new Battery Regulation has increased the need for recycling certain battery components and materials.

The three-year BATCircle3.0 project, led by Aalto University, aims to enhance the circulation of valuable battery materials and develop feasible solutions for recovering materials that are not currently recycled. Its goals are more ambitious than those set by the current Battery Regulation, seeking to further reduce dependence on critical raw materials. The project intends both to support the development of the battery value chain in Finland and to improve Europe’s competitiveness.

BATCircle3.0 strives to develop next-generation battery chemistries and characterization methods as well as to understand the recyclability of future battery waste fractions, for example, the effects of impurities on processing. One aim is to establish a synergistic approach to processing, recycling, and chemical circulation for the economically sound and responsible use of recycled raw materials.